DAX (Germany 30) Trading Setup
DAX (Germany 30) Trading Setup
It has been a quiet week so far. The trade from last week did not behave as expected. The EURJPY trade did initially go up but then the bullish enthusiasm was quickly extinguished. The support level did not stand and was broken. Now, EURJPY keeps on going lower and lower and is currently standing at 116.46. Seems like the 116 level is the next strong support level. For the time being, I will continue monitoring this pair.
DAX (Germany 30) Trading Setup
Today’s trading idea is coming from the German index- DAX. During the day it sold off down to the closest intraday support at 12075. Buyers supported the price and it shot up to over 12175. This left a daily bearish rejection on the chart of this index. The daily candle is a pin bar and it seems logical that the next move will be up. Based on today’s activity, my possible long entry will be at around 12150. My stop-loss will be placed just under the low of the pin bar at 12035. I will be looking to take profit at around 12260 and then 12400– depending on price action. I will be extra cautious with this trade, because price is close to a major top, so even if I trade it, it will be a smaller one.
20 thoughts on “DAX (Germany 30) Trading Setup”
“That Pin Bar”
Now the job of a trader in my opinon is to wait and watch for price action around that pin.
Will it be bullish or bearish ?
12135 to 12140 area is the 50% for the pin which shouldish holdish as support, but the big trade will take place when the big money gets trapped.
If in fact price action IS bullish within this area and toward the lower range of this pin, all good BUT if price decidedly moves strongly to the downside. The these longs will be trapped thus triggering an avalanche of selling. (pin not created by retail traders)
I can’t disregard that we are also enterng the seaon of selling, imagine if this pin formed end of NOV, would be viewed differently.
This may not be a significant point but I’ll mention it anyway there is unfilled gap just under 12072 I have it marked a reference point.
Best trading 🙂
Hi dan and colibritrader,
As colibritrader mentioned, the trade is close to major resistance area and it seems to be downtrend with lower high and lower low for the past 7 daily bars. I would wait until less riskier level if I were to long the DAX, say wait until 11800ish as it is too close to major resistance area.
Hi Harry- very good point. I am still waiting myself, not really convinced…
The session has started and I am watching price action around the 50% mark of that pin, we breached it but then buyers came in and pushed it higher than the 50% area.
The low of that pin is strong support as you’ve highlighted.
Even though it would “feel” like suicide to buy near the low of that pin that’s exactly where I would go long as the risk can be kept very low.
The 4 hr has also formed a ridge line along the price tops where a downtrend line could be drawn. Should price action in coming days be strong enough to breach this line look out as the projected move could surge higher than 12400 area.
There has been a weak asian session, it will be interesting if Dax has a strong session
A question: “Germ30” is a CFD version for the FDAX, which do you trade ?
The reason I ask is that some traders look down upon traders that don’t trade the original futures instrument. They reckon it’s less reliable etc.
I use the CFD version because trading costs are much lower, after all, “a trading signal is a trading signal.” and “managing risk is managing risk”
Have you had this experience?
Thank you and best trades 🙂
FDAX is the future contract. Ger30 is the CFD derivative of that. Of course there is a difference, but it is not going to change the way you trade in the long term. Unless you are a scalper or day trader, CFD is as good. About the DAX, I am still monitoring it and it seems that after the initial rejection at 12250 it feels weak now. Let’s see if it is going to find some support now. I am not going to be able to monitor closely, because I am on an Easter holiday. I suppose a lot of other traders are on an Easter holiday, so would be more careful when trading until the end of this week and the beginning of next. I am expecting to see a reduction in volumes.
Talk to you later,
Hi colibritrader and Harry
What’s interesting about the general markets is that during the Trump rally since November 9 there hasn’t been or only very few incidence of terrorism or mentions of conflict I always wondered why but now that the market has topped out and smashed all time Highs you hear all kinds of news about terrorism and potential war.
Isn’t it just a bit of a coincidence.
The markets are engineered for the very rich and controlled by them, the media is controlled wars are controlled conflict is orchestrated this cruel hierarchy sickens me.
You hear of so many good people dying before they should and useless people living on despite their bad deeds
With regard to Dax the candles we see have already happened and although we must react to what happened and not anticipate, anticipation is also part of trading not that it’s your trading plan but it also part of being a speculator.
The downtrend could simply be a Bull flag forming and yes we will all wait but the lowest risk long trade is at the bottom of pin which is at a strong support level. If price action is bullish it is the lowest risk area to enter a long trade
If price breaks through this initial support and drops down to 11800 that would be even more bearish I would not be looking for long if this happened as bears would have seized control.
If price respects the support and low of the pin then this is just a healthy pullback for a retest of at least the highs. Now a retest and fail of the highs would be a huge statement. We might see to and fro price action until end of April.
The Dax has retraced 2.8 percent the pin that colibritrader has pointed out is the most intriguing bar on the dax for me it could mean so many things but until it breaks it will maintain a bullish connotation around it.
a bit of coincidence maybe, when President from republic in control – it’s about war, when President from Democrat in control – it’s about the market.
And what happened to Gold in the meantime…. steady rise
Thanks for the great thoughts. I totally agree with what you are saying and partially because of that I have chosen to follow price action and do not expect what could happen. I prefer to react on what I see and not what I think I could see. It is hard to explain, but once you understand what I mean, you will see how different things look then. You are not trying to “decide” which way the market will go, but you are trying to follow its signals. Regarding the DAX movement- as I said earlier, this candle formed close to a resistance area and is harder to break it due to the many sellers standing above. The second reason is the holiday that means less traders trading 🙂 Happy Easter
My long post above contained a bit of a rant but with regard to your post.
It is the way forward, trading price action and trading what you see. So very important to do and to impliment the discipline to carry that process out.
As price action traders we must wait for the evidence that backs up the initial signal to execute on only the best setups leaving the less than perfect ones behind.
I truly believe that if a trader does this their success rate would surely increase.
Thanks once again for your efforts in creating all that is “colibritrader”
Thank you for creating the “rant”. It is great to have creative conversations like that. It is what makes the learning process interesting and what makes me discover some things, too! Keep it up! What is important is that price action should be considered as the ultimate tool of achieving our goals. After a good period of time when experience is on the table, success will follow.
12070 on this index CFD
I am waiting to see what price action will do I have no idea what is creating this such a bullish price action in this session.
I initially lost on the spike down on the open (happened in seconds) but went long and am overall in profit by over $200 so far very bullish. Out at the moment.
Am very interested what happens in the 12070 zone
I try to keep a 10,000 foot view on markets, this can serve to propel profits into the atmosphere.
A great example was when the DAX was long time consolidating from Sept to Dec 2016 that was a beautiful thing !
Unfortunately I wasn’t following you then, it could have been quite profitable, I’m sure you were in long.
Say hello to Mr Redmond for me, would like to meet him one day 🙂
I am still looking at the 12070 area. The price is still flirting with it and it is important to follow if price will break this level. If I start seeing some rejections, this could lead to a good place to short on an intraday basis. I am also looking at the small bullish engulfing pattern from the daily timeframe, which is giving me some good ground to think that we might have a bullish move today. Let’s stay tuned and see where price will go. I will certainly say hello 😉
12008 was the 50% retrace area of that bullish engulf you mentioned.
Good entry but I missed it as was away from screens.
This is an example of taking the same high odds setup we spoke about recently
Haha- it happens a lot of the times. I am looking at the GBPUSD for a possible Long entry. Good luck with the rest of the day and enjoy the weekend Dan!
Thanks you too have a nice weekend.
I’m short CAD today very int price action at R levels could be a good trade
CAD price action was too supportive, simply would not break, so closed with meager gains. Boy that was luck or traders intuition.
All I kept saying was don’t be greedy this is not acting right. Then I said but I could make alot if it drops … haha good cop bad cop.
Anyway price action wasn’t right so closed. I actually dialed into a 1 min chart to really see what was going on at the level that wasn’t breaking.
Hava great weekend
I have seen that. It was a very bullish candle and thank god you were not short:) Have a great weekend and waiting for your next comments 🙂
Hopefully your having a nice weekend.
The FTSE or cfd equivalant has given some great trading signals as of late. Daily and 4hr.
Of course this is hindsight and I’m not claiming this post as anything else, but to highlight a dilemma.
I personally don’t follow the FSTE hence missing the opportunity, I’ve often thought it would be productive to have a very small select group that watched certaing markets.
Then once the opp is spotted by that sector individual, the idea is brought forward to discuss by everyone.
Brainstorming the potential and probabilities of that idea.
I don’t know any other traders and I don’t discuss my trading with anyone. This is trading in isolation just the same as looking at one market without looking at it’s correlated counterpart.
I’ve found forums full of imbeciles, so no answers there.
There is more I could add but I’ll leave it there.
It is always great pleasure to read your comments. I have reviewed the UK100 and seems like there were 2 good setups. The first one was to short after a bearish engulfing on Daily and the second one was a long, after an inside day on the Daily. Good spot and keep them coming! Have you checked my latest article after the French elections?